Natural Gas Daily - Consensus Model Forecasts Warm Temperatures For Mid-January (谈股论金) 396次阅读

作者: zf2005 , 发表于: 2017-01-02 (2673天前) @ Tomzeng64

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by: HFI

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Summary
Consensus model forecasting warm temps across the East for mid-January.

HDDs have been revised lower on the back of this bearish outlook.

Despite 6-10 day outlook showing SE ridging disappearing, latest model update could see natural gas prices sell off.

Here comes the flip-flop we talked about in our natural gas recap last week:

Click to enlarge

Source: Michael Ventrice

Here's the Canadian Ensemble video of the next 11-15 day outlook.

Click to enlarge

Source: Michael Ventrice

As you can see, most models now predict warm temperatures for the middle of Jan after the polar vortex for the week ending 1/13. HDDs have been revised lower by about 7-8%.

Remember that we wrote in our weekly recap that the 6-10 day outlook is already reversing the Southeast ridging effect that's causing the warmer than normal temperature trends across the East for the 6-10 day period. Well, the SE ridging is almost completely gone now in the 6-10 day outlook, but the 11-15 day outlook shows it even stronger! Here's another nice GIF of the SE ridging disappearing in the latest 6-10 day outlook.

It's been frustrating to see the big flip-flops in the models to say the least, but the uncertainty will likely prevent natural gas (NYSEARCA:UNG) prices from hitting $4/MMBtu. The warming trend does not help the bulls even if the SE ridging is expected to go away. As a result of the recent bearish outlook for the 11-15 day period, we could see natural gas prices sell-off a bit.

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