ZT：Robert Shiller says the housing market looks like it did in 2006 (谈股论金)  804次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2018-11-01 (2223天前) @ 雅歌

Robert Shiller says the housing market looks like it did in 2006

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/robert-shiller-says-the-housing-market-looks-like-it-did-in-2006/ar-BBP7C3X?ocid=spartanntp

The famed housing watcher Robert Shiller said Tuesday that the weakening housing market reminds him of the last market top, just before the subprime housing bubble burst, slashing prices by nearly a third and costing millions of Americans their homes.
Home price gains moderated again in the most recent version of the closely watched housing index that bears his name, which was released Tuesday, and Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, told Yahoo Finance that such data shows “a sign of weakness.”
Housing pivots take more time than those in the stock market, Shiller said. Still, “the housing market does have a momentum component and we’re seeing a clipping of momentum at this time.”
“If the markets go down, it could bring on another recession. The housing market has been an important element of economic activity. If people start to get pessimistic about housing and pull back and don’t want to buy, there will be a drop in construction jobs and that could be a seed for another recession. By the way, we’re overdue for another recession.” — Robert Shiller
When a startled reporter reminded Shiller that 2006 predated the greatest financial crisis in a lifetime, the Yale economist acknowledged that any correction would likely be far less severe.
“The drop in home prices in the financial crisis was the most severe drop in the U.S. market since my data begin in 1890,” Shiller said. “It could be that we’re primed to repeat it because it’s in our memory and we’re thinking about it but still I wouldn’t expect something as severe as the Great Financial Crisis coming on right now. There could be a significant correction or bear market, but I’m waiting and seeing now.”