GE继续拿着，可以加码做空。可以参考内容。 (谈股论金)  305次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2018-10-19 (2236天前) @ LauraM

General Electric (GE) shares have been more volatile than usual lately, which reflects the comings and goings at the company. Consider that in the past year GE has had three CEOs, disposed of $15 billion in assets, announced the spin-off of two business units -- oil services and health care -- taken a $6B charge related to long-term-care insurance, and announced a separate impairment to goodwill that could total up to $23 billion .
This purging process has some of the Street more positive on the stock. RBC Capital Markets , Wolfe Research , and Barclays all upgraded the shares this month after Larry Culp was named to replace John Flannery at the helm. Other analysts have been more pessimistic. For instance, Gordon Haskett analyst John Inch initiated GE with an underperform rating this week.
Today, the Financial Times reported that GE Power was going to win a contract in Iraq over rival Siemens (SIEGY). Wolfe analyst Nigel Coe wrote that could help turn investor sentiment on GE, noting that the struggles in GE Power are what drives most of the negative feelings toward the stock. That $23 billion goodwill impairment we mentioned is related to GE's power assets.
The problem is that GE Power isn't the only problem the Street is following. GE Capital is still an issue, despite the fact that the industrial giant has shrunk the capital balance sheet by nearly half-a-trillion dollars over the past 10 years.
That GE Capital is still a problem isn't good news for GE. One thing I've learned on my years on the Street is that industrial analysts hate having to become bank analysts. They would prefer to leave financial asset valuation to the experts. After all, why would analysts who spend their time looking at smoke stacks have a view on long-term-care insurance?

And that is where we see a big difference between GE and other industrials. Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) lend money to help customers buy their equipment, but those finance arms don't stray far from the core business, and offer loans through dealer networks. Reported earnings at the finance subsidiaries of Caterpillar and Deere haven't been negative in the last 20 years. GE, on the other hand, has reported GAAP losses of about $22 billion cumulatively over the last four years in its capital arm.
Nor are GE's financing losses likely a thing of the past, according to some analysts. According to filings, GE Capital has $136 billion in assets and $12B in equity as a cushion for future losses. The problem is evaluating the nearly $70B in long term financial assets on the books. What is the right haircut? Or, is a haircut needed at all, beyond what the company has already announced? In a note released on Tuesday, UBS analyst Steven Winoker laid out some scenarios for GE Capital's issues and came away with a scary conclusion: "Our base case implies negative value for GECC ( GE Capital )." GE had not responded to a request for comment by Wednesday evening.
Not everyone is that negative, but whether an investor feels comfortable with GE, the stock, could come down to two questions. First, do you believe the worst is over at GE to make from its industrial business. Industrials trade at 16 or 17 times 2019 earnings which would make GE worth $17 per share. Discount that by 20%, or whatever you feel is appropriate, for financial complexity or GE Capital risk and you arrive at, perhaps, $14 per share as an interim target.
GE will announce its third-quarter earnings on October 30 , and it will be a big day for the company. It will be new CEO Larry Culp's introduction to investors, and it might mean another reduction in the company's guidance, as well as another dividend cut. If the stock doesn't make new lows after the report, we would expect deep value investors -- the market's ultimate bargain hunters -- to start looking at GE.
Just don't forget GE Capital.

Capital ? If the answer is 'yes,' then you can ask yourself the second question: What should you pay for the industrial business? GE has said it would earn $1 in 2018 guidance, which is about how much GE expects