住房营造业现在可以买的是TOL，在33元附近，因为已跌至底部。DHI不要买，10/2日出现做空信号。还没跌至底部，除非跌至40元以下。10/2日收盘在42.59元。
LGIH 9/21被JPM升级后股价涨一天后继续下跌，从50.5跌至45.6元，跌了近10%！目前LGIH的技术面非常利空，应该还会再跌一些。可以在44.5-45.1元附近抄底。因为RSI到了27，稍微超卖了。一般最好等RSI在20或以下时再入场抄底，短炒反弹更保险。 (谈股论金)  304次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2018-10-03 (2252天前) @ 如歌如水
编辑: 雅歌, 时间: 星期三, 十月 03, 2018, 08:13

Reasons for Caution on Homebuilder Stocks -- Barrons.com
1:40 pm ET September 21, 2018 (Dow Jones) Print
By Teresa Rivas

Homebuilders have lagged behind the broader market this year, and a lackluster housing outlook isn't helping, says JPMorgan Chase .

Where we were: Homebuilders have fallen in 2018, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) off nearly 10% year to date.

Where we're headed: JPMorgan sees a "tepid" housing recovery into 2019, and says investors should be selective.

The bank's Michael Rehaut took a look at housing Friday, writing that he expects a tepid recovery extending into next year, leading him to be more cautious on homebuilders.

While leading indicators, except the inventory of new homes, have been fairly positive, other metrics are more mixed looking into 2019. On the plus side, household formation is solid, the existing-home inventory is near record lows, residential construction jobs are on the upswing, and credit continues to ease. That said, Rehaut warns that overall job growth is projected to moderate next year, affordability will likely continue to decline, and consumer confidence appears "fairly elevated."

All that leads him to lower his 2018 and 2019 forecasts for single-family housing starts to 900,000 and 950,000, respectively, or roughly 6% growth for each year. He previously had pegged housing starts for this year and next to grow 9% and 10%, respectively, to 930,000 and 1.025 million.

All of this makes him more wary of homebuilders, and he advises favoring stocks with company-specific momentum. His Overweight-rated stocks are Lennar (ticker: LEN), LGI Homes (LGIH), and William Lyon Homes (WLH). He downgraded Beazer Homes (BZH), Century Communities (CCS), and Meritage (MTH) to Neutral from Outperform, and cut MDC Holdings (MDC) to Underweight from Neutral.