Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions" (谈股论金)  611次阅读

作者: xiaosan , 发表于: 2017-06-12 (2561天前) @ 新东

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions"

ZeroHedge
On Wedensday the FOMC will hike rates by another 25 bps – an event which the Fed Funds market prices in with near virtual certainty, while Goldman calls the rate increase “extremely likely” – and only a “tail” event like an extremely weak CPI report on Wednesday morning, hours ahead of the Fed announcement, has any chance of preventing this outcome. So with the next rate hike virtually inevitable, questions are focused on not only the Fed’s exit strategy for balance sheet normalization and what the “dots” or funds rate path will look like, but how the Fed squares rising rates with the recent string of inflation misses.

As Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes, data since the March meeting has sharpened the dilemma that both sides of the mandate are sending increasingly different signals about the urgency of further tightening. “The unemployment rate has fallen 0.4pp since the March meeting and our current activity indicator and real GDP estimates signal that above-trend output growth will produce further labor market improvement. But the year-over-year core PCE inflation is now 0.2pp lower than at the March meeting.”

While conceding that a hike is guaranteed, Goldman notes that two issues should make this meeting particularly interesting.

First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening?
Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be?
As a result of the weaker than expected inflationary prints, Goldman believes the recent data do not call for a major change in the Fed’s policy outlook. While Hatzius expects the FOMC to lower its estimate of the structural unemployment rate by a tenth next week, even with that assumption, the new data have broadly offsetting implications for the policy outlook in standard Taylor rules. Highlighting recent Fed communications, Goldman believes the Fed will follow “a balanced approach in dealing with the dilemma.”

It also means that the statement will likely characterize economic activity as “picking up but recognize that inflation slowed since earlier this year.” On the other side, Goldman sees a signal of heightened inflation concern as the main dovish risk and an upgrade of the balance of risks as the main hawkish risk.

Previewing the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), expect a modest downgrade to GDP growth for this year, coupled with declines in the unemployment rate to 4.3% this year and 4.2% next year. At the same time, projections for core PCE inflation are likely to fall to 1.8% this year and probably 1.9% in 2018. Reflecting the offsetting data news, expect the “dot plot” to show relatively stable funds rate projections.

On to Yellen’s press conference, which should provide some clarity on whether the next tightening step after June will be balance sheet normalization or a third funds rate hike. Goldman, as well as much of the street, expects balance sheet adjustment to start in September and the Fed hiking cycle to resume in December. With respect to the balance sheet, the Fed will initially cap the amounts of securities that can run off in any given month of $10bn for UST and $5 billion for MBS, that rise over four quarters to caps of $40 billion and $20 billion, respectively.

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Some more details. Here is Goldman on the current economic situation, and how it will be (mis)read by the Fed.

Another rate increase from the FOMC next week is now extremely likely. Only an extremely weak CPI report on Wednesday morning or another tail event would prevent the committee from hiking. The committee probably also still expects a total of three hikes and the start of balance sheet adjustment in 2017.

But two issues should make this meeting particularly interesting.

First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening? We expect both lower unemployment and inflation paths in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) but relatively stable funds rate projections as the labor market and inflation data surprises, in the words of San Francisco Fed President John Williams, roughly “wash out”.
Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be? We expect a detailed balance sheet announcement in September and a third rate hike in December but the reverse order is also plausible.
We believe both labor market and growth data in hand make a strong case for a rate increase next week and to remain upbeat about the outlook. Both our current activity indicator —down from 4.0% in February to 3.0% in May— and real GDP estimates—up from 1.2% in Q1 to our 2.3% Q2 tracking estimate—signal above-trend output growth (Exhibit 1, left panel). The medium-term growt