AKS的季报很差，暴跌13%， 估计X（USSteel）的季报也不会太好！X应该会跌至22元附近！不要做多！还可以稍微做空！因为有人说年底会跌至14元！请看内容 (谈股论金)  493次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2017-10-31 (2379天前) @ 新东

AK Steel Holding ( AKS) is tumbling after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings this morning, and United States Steel ( X) could slash its 2017 guidance for pre-tax earnings later today based on lousy steel demand and prices.

U.S. Steel reports earnings after the close, and shares had tumbled 4% pre-market on top of a 2.3% decline Monday. AK Steel shares were off nearly 6% ahead of the open, on top of a more than 3% decline Monday.

The metals and mining equipment skeptics at Axiom Capital Research think the stock could tumble to $14 by the end of the year, implying downside risk of a whopping 45%. Analysts Gordon L. Johnson II and James A. Bardowski argue that while Nucor ( NUE) raised prices to $40 per ton on Oct. 18, which would seem evidence of robust demand, there are "huge holes in this thesis." The problem is weakening auto sales and production, which contributed to General Motors' ( GM) $3 billion loss in the third quarter. They write:

" ... we see a 25% cut to X's $1.1 billion 2017 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) guidance to $828 million (vs. Street $1.09 billion) as likely. ... using a 90% confidence interval, over the 5 observation periods available since X changed the way it guided EBITDA 1/26/16, on average, our approach predicted X's forward EBITDA guidance within 82% of the guided number. ... we assume all of the other factors that X cites as impacting its full-year EBITDA guidance remain constant (i.e., raw material costs [which are fixed, for the most part for X, at the beginning of the year], customer demand [which has worsened since 7/25/17], import volumes [which have worsened since 7/25/17], supply chain inventories [which have worsened since 7/25/17], rig counts [which have worsened since 7/25/17] and energy prices [which have strengthen since 7/25/17]). ... Over the past three months, U.S. Steel's shares have gained +15.1%, outperforming our custom value-weighted Steel Mill OEM Index, which is up +7.7% over the same time frame, as well as our Axiom Industrial Equipment OEM Index, which is up +14.7% looking back three months. Furthermore, X's shares have outperformed our Axiom Capital