根据Barrons的说法是跌深反弹。也许市场认为未来川普团队会面临特别检察官的起诉缠身，无法理会药厂药价过高的问题。Barrons的评论见内。 (谈股论金)  402次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2017-10-30 (2380天前) @ Peaceful

Biotechnology companies, known for making people healthy, are looking rather sick after a week of disappointing earnings releases. The selloff has, however, created a buying opportunity for investors willing to bet that the sector will return to health soon.
It has certainly been a bad week -- and then some -- for biotech. The SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund (XBI) dropped 2.1% last week, as stock after stock offered reasons for investors to sell, with Amgen (AMGN), Biogen (BIIB), Celgene (CELG), and Gilead Sciences (GILD) all offering disappointments of one kind or another. But that tells only part of the story. At the close of trading on Thursday, the ETF had dropped for eight straight days, its longest losing streak since eight days of futility that ended on Jan. 11, 2016 . And only a 0.3% advance on Oct. 16 saves it from selling off for 15 straight days.

But here's the thing: Despite the drops, the news wasn't all that bad. Instead, biotech looks like a victim of high expectations -- and could be ready to run again.
It's not that biotech didn't deserve some pain. Heading into October, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF had gained 47% this year, more than three times the S&P 500's 14% during the same period. Unfortunately, large biotech stocks did not live up to expectations implied by those big gains. The big four all reported better-than-expected earnings, but investors focused on the details: Biogen's disappointing sales of its multiple sclerosis treatments, Amgen's slumping Enbrel sales, and the continued erosion of Gilead's hepatitis-C business. None whiffed more than Celgene , which surprisingly lowered its guidance through 2020, causing its shares to tumble 16%.

Yet there are reasons for hope. October is historically the second-worst month for the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF relative to the S&P 1500, says Rob Ginsberg , technical analyst at Wolfe Research . And his data show that biotech bounces back in the average November. At the same time, the 14-day relative strength indicator -- a technical indicator that shows whether a stock or ETF is overbought or oversold -- fell to a level on Thursday that suggests a bounce could be imminent. "We're comfortable using this volatility to our advantage," Ginsberg says.

But that still leaves the problem of Celgene . Its 19.1% decline last week was its largest since November 2008 , and by some counts, it's well deserved. In downgrading the stock to Market Perform from Strong Buy last Thursday, Raymond James analyst Laura Chico argued that her thesis had been completely derailed by the combination of weakness in sales of Celgene's blockbuster blood-cancer drug Revlimid; its 2020 revenue guidance, which was lowered to a range of $19 billion to $20 billion from more than $21 billion ; and a previous failure of a drug trial. "While we may be able to overlook modest, transient commercial headwinds and a pipeline misstep, [the] update substantially alters our outlook and confidence in the company's ability to execute," she wrote.

But Chico's wasn't the only thesis that came to an end with Celgene's plunge. Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison had a Sell rating on Celgene before last week's plunge, and even included it in the firm's list of secular losses before the announcement. On Friday, however, he upgraded Celgene to Equal Weight from Underweight, arguing that while the risks from generic competitors could outweigh good news, "expectations have reset and now offer a more balance risk/reward." Celgene closed at $98.17 last Friday, above Harrison's $97 price target.
But Celgene does have one thing going for it -- its valuation. Its stock now trades at 11.9 times 12-month forward earnings estimates, a postfinancial-crisis low. What does that mean? "Momentum players have exited the stock," says Mizuho analyst Salim Syed . "This stock is now one for value investors to relook at."
There might be more pain to come, but at this price, Celgene looks like a bargain.